One thing is for sure - the appetite property investors have today is not what it was 6 months ago. There are three main reasons for this - Northern Rock's Bank of England loan, the way in which the press have reacted to the loan, and the consequential dip in investor confidence in the market. It is difficult for me to understand how the poor financial planning of just one company can cause millions of people to become nervous about investing in property but this seems to be the case. I suppose this emphasises the power of the press and paper-selling headlines!
In times of a strong market we find the best deals available generally do not stick around for long. This is true for investors buying ones and twos from us and also holds true for larger buyers (like our company) who negotiate on entire sites and portfolios. Confident investors who have continued to buy over the last few months have done very well. They have been able to negotiate better terms with vendors on even the best deals available - those which would fly out of the door in a confident market! It is the investors and homebuyers who have not been buying over the last few months who have made this possible. They say that good investors will make money in any market, and now is no different.
Despite the general lack of confidence in the market at the moment I believe the property market will continue to grow and here are five good reasons why:
1 - Supply and Demand
The Town and Country Planning Association revealed earlier this year that the UK has a deficit of over 500,000 homes, a figure which is growing by more than 120,000 every year. The most basic laws of Supply and Demand tell us that this situation can only contribute to higher prices. In the UK I don't think anyone really knows how many immigrants have and continue to come in to the country but these will also all need somewhere to live and this will contribute to rising house prices.
2 - Renting or buying - long term outcome is same!
With buy-to-let mortgages representing around 10% of the value of all mortgage balances in the country, demand from investors continues to play a big role in the market. On the assumption that everyone needs somewhere to live, when less people buy their own home they alternatively rent. This increase in demand for rental property pushes upward pressure on rental rates. Higher rents lead to higher yields for landlords which in turn will lead to higher demand from existing and new investors to purchase further property. If rents rise continually, buying will suddenly become a more attractive option for tenants which will put upward pressure on prices. The moral of the story is that in a market with limited supply and growing demand, prices and / or rents will always rise if the economic conditions are right and there is a structure in place to facilitate sustainable growth.
3 - The UK Market can handle sustainable growth
The legal and financial structure in the UK is geared towards sustainable growth. Overall, the financial institutions in place to facilitate buying property in the UK are very sensible and have suitable measures in place to ensure their lending is not risky. The likes of RICS valuations, stringent credit checks and only up to 85% borrowing in many cases mean that property is rarely sold to anyone who can not afford to pay back their debts even if the market drops. The finance options available for buyers are also continually getting more sophisticated, allowing homeowners and investors to buy in ways which suit their personal strategies. This enables steady and continual growth of property prices.
4 - The UK is not the USA
The United States is vast and there is an abundance of space to continue to build in when prices become too high in certain areas. The USA have an unbelievable number of vacant houses on the market at any one time and do not face the shortfall in supply currently experienced in the UK. More importantly, the finance structure and mentality of lenders in the USA is very different to that of those in the UK. Lenders in America often repossess houses after just one missed mortgage payment or shortfall which in my opinion has contributed largely to the housing market crash. In the UK the situation is very different - lenders are much more flexible and 'sensible' - allowing for alternative payment plans to be made. This keeps the market much more stable and allows it to grow steadily.
5 - Economic Conditions are Right
Solid economic conditions and high employment will continue to increase housing demand and push house prices up next year. Other measures are also being looked at in the UK to ensure steady growth - the proposed plans to cut capital gains tax next April are an example of this.
Although buyer numbers are low as many investors and homebuyers alike are waiting to see how market will behave over next few months, strong economic conditions and a lack of houses for sale will continue to spurn growth and prevent the crash that some uneducated commentators predict. All of the brokers we are working with predict interest rates will stabilise in coming months and this will also help to bring more confidence back to the market.
We have seen a huge recovery in investor confidence this week with our usual quota of UK buy-to-let deals selling very quickly and some investors disappointed to have missed out. I am personally buying more residential properties than ever in the UK as well as rapidly expanding my portfolio of residential freehold blocks. With our network of finders focused on sourcing the exact property types we are geared towards buying, expanding my portfolio in the UK is something I plan to continue for many years to come and all of our regular investors are of the same opinion.
Scott Goodall - Scott co-founder of Bueno Investments, which was formed in 2005. Prior to this, Scott had been working in the property investment industry for many years where he built the foundations for the knowledge and experience he has today. Scott was fortunate to have worked with an excellent investor in his early years, which enabled him to learn the art of seeking out the few excellent opportunities on the market. Within the company, Scott is primarily responsible for sales facilitation, business development and public relations. In his spare time Scott enjoys spending time with family and friends, personal development events, playing sports with his favourites being tennis, football and golf, and he is a keen gardener. Scott also has a degree in Business & Finance Economics at Royal Holloway (University of London). |
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